Brief communication: Seasonal prediction of salinity intrusion in the Mekong Delta

Apel, Heiko; Khiem, Mai; Quan, Nguyen Hong; Toan, To Quang

The Mekong Delta is the most important food production area in Vietnam, but salinity intrusion during the dry season poses a serious threat to agricultural production and livelihoods. A seasonal forecast of salinity intrusion is required in order to mitigate the negative effects. This communication presents a statistical seasonal forecast model based on logistic regression using either the ENSO34 index or streamflow as a predictor. The model is able to reliably predict the salinity intrusion up to 9 months ahead (receiver operating characteristic (ROC) scores: inline-formula>0.8). The model can thus be used operationally as a basis for timely adaptation and mitigation planning.

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Apel, Heiko / Khiem, Mai / Quan, Nguyen Hong / et al: Brief communication: Seasonal prediction of salinity intrusion in the Mekong Delta. 2020. Copernicus Publications.

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Rechteinhaber: Heiko Apel et al.

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