Development and application of observable response indicators for design of an effective ozone and fine-particle pollution control strategy in China

Xing, Jia; Ding, Dian; Wang, Shuxiao; Dong, Zhaoxin; Kelly, James T.; Jang, Carey; Zhu, Yun; Hao, Jiming

Designing effective control policies requires efficient quantification of the nonlinear response of air pollution to emissions. However, neither the current observable indicators nor the current indicators based on response surface modeling (RSM) can fulfill this requirement. Therefore, this study developed new observable RSM-based indicators and applied them to ambient fine-particle (PMinline-formula2.5) and ozone (inline-formulaO3) pollution control in China. The performance of these observable indicators in predicting inline-formulaO3 and PMinline-formula2.5 chemistry was compared with that of the current RSM-based indicators. inline-formulaH2O2inline-formula×inline-formulaHCHO∕NO2 and total ammonia ratio, which exhibited the best performance among indicators, were proposed as new observable inline-formulaO3 and PMinline-formula2.5 chemistry indicators, respectively. Strong correlations between RSM-based and traditional observable indicators suggested that a combination of ambient concentrations of certain chemical species can serve as an indicator to approximately quantify the response of inline-formulaO3 and PMinline-formula2.5 to changes in precursor emissions. The observable RSM-based indicator for inline-formulaO3 (observable peak ratio) effectively captured the strong inline-formulaNOx-saturated regime in January and the inline-formulaNOx-limited regime in July, as well as the strong inline-formulaNOx-saturated regime in northern and eastern China and their key regions, including the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta. The observable RSM-based indicator for PMinline-formula2.5 (observable flex ratio) also captured strong inline-formulaNH3-poor conditions in January and inline-formulaNH3-rich conditions in April and July, as well as inline-formulaNH3-rich conditions in northern and eastern China and the Sichuan Basin. Moreover, analysis of these newly developed observable response indicators suggested that the simultaneous control of inline-formulaNH3 and inline-formulaNOx emissions produces greater benefits in provinces with higher PMinline-formula2.5 exposure by up to 1.2 inline-formulaµg minline-formula−3 PMinline-formula2.5 per 10 % inline-formulaNH3 reduction compared with inline-formulaNOx control only. Control of volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions by as much as 40 % of inline-formulaNOx controls is necessary to obtain the co-benefits of reducing both inline-formulaO3 and PMinline-formula2.5 exposure at the national level when controlling inline-formulaNOx emissions. However, the VOC-to-inline-formulaNOx ratio required to maintain benefits varies significantly from 0 to 1.2 in different provinces, suggesting that a more localized control strategy should be designed for each province.

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Xing, Jia / Ding, Dian / Wang, Shuxiao / et al: Development and application of observable response indicators for design of an effective ozone and fine-particle pollution control strategy in China. 2019. Copernicus Publications.

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