Rainfall downscaling and flood forecasting: a case study in the Mediterranean area

Rebora, N.; Ferraris, L.; von Hardenberg, J.; Provenzale, A.

The prediction of the small-scale spatial-temporal pattern of intense rainfall events is crucial for flood risk assessment in small catchments and urban areas. In the absence of a full deterministic modelling of small-scale rainfall, it is common practice to resort to the use of stochastic downscaling models to generate ensemble rainfall predictions to be used as inputs to rainfall-runoff models. In this work we present an application of a new spatial-temporal downscaling procedure, called RainFARM, to an intense precipitation event predicted by the limited-area meteorological model Lokal Model over north-west Italy. The uncertainty in flood prediction associated with the small unresolved scales of forecasted precipitation fields is evaluated by using an ensemble of downscaled fields to drive a semi-distributed rainfall-runoff model.

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Rebora, N. / Ferraris, L. / von Hardenberg, J. / et al: Rainfall downscaling and flood forecasting: a case study in the Mediterranean area. 2006. Copernicus Publications.

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