Evaluating multi-scale precipitation forecasts using high resolution analysis

Wittmann, C.; Haiden, T.; Kann, A.

The SAL (Structure, Amplitude, Location) method is used for verification of precipitation forecasts at horizontal grid spacings ranging from 2.5 km to 25 km, using a high-resolution 1 km precipitation analysis as a reference. The verification focuses on a summertime period with predominantly convective precipitation. The verification domain contains lowland as well as alpine areas. Evaluation of the individual SAL components shows that with regard to area mean values ( A) the benefit of high resolutions models becomes apparent only in high impact weather situations. For the summertime period studied, the subjective impression of better structured precipitation fields ( S) in higher resolution models can generally be confirmed. The most significant improvement appears to be associated with explicit simulation of deep convection.

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Wittmann, C. / Haiden, T. / Kann, A.: Evaluating multi-scale precipitation forecasts using high resolution analysis. 2010. Copernicus Publications.

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