Predictability of extreme values in geophysical models

Sterk, A. E.; Holland, M. P.; Rabassa, P.; Broer, H. W.; Vitolo, R.

Extreme value theory in deterministic systems is concerned with unlikely large (or small) values of an observable evaluated along evolutions of the system. In this paper we study the finite-time predictability of extreme values, such as convection, energy, and wind speeds, in three geophysical models. We study whether finite-time Lyapunov exponents are larger or smaller for initial conditions leading to extremes. General statements on whether extreme values are better or less predictable are not possible: the predictability of extreme values depends on the observable, the attractor of the system, and the prediction lead time.

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Sterk, A. E. / Holland, M. P. / Rabassa, P. / et al: Predictability of extreme values in geophysical models. 2012. Copernicus Publications.

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