GLOBALLY-APPLICABLE PREDICTIVE WILDFIRE MODEL   A TEMPORAL–SPATIAL GIS BASED RISK ANALYSIS USING DATA DRIVEN FUZZY LOGIC FUNCTIONS

van den Dool, G.

This study (van den Dool, 2017) is a proof of concept for a global predictive wildfire model, in which the temporal–spatial characteristics of wildfires are placed in a Geographical Information System (GIS), and the risk analysis is based on data-driven fuzzy logic functions. The data sources used in this model are available as global datasets, but subdivided into three pilot areas: North America (California/Nevada), Europe (Spain), and Asia (Mongolia), and are downscaled to the highest resolution (3-arc second).

The GIS is constructed around three themes: topography, fuel availability and climate. From the topographical data, six derived sub-themes are created and converted to a fuzzy membership based on the catchment area statistics. The fuel availability score is a composite of four data layers: land cover, wood loads, biomass, biovolumes. As input for the climatological sub-model reanalysed daily averaged, weather-related data is used, which is accumulated to a global weekly time-window (to account for the uncertainty within the climatological model) and forms the temporal component of the model. The final product is a wildfire risk score (from 0 to 1) by week, representing the average wildfire risk in an area. To compute the potential wildfire risk the sub-models are combined usinga Multi-Criteria Approach, and the model results are validated against the area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve.

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Zitierform:

van den Dool, G.: GLOBALLY-APPLICABLE PREDICTIVE WILDFIRE MODEL   A TEMPORAL–SPATIAL GIS BASED RISK ANALYSIS USING DATA DRIVEN FUZZY LOGIC FUNCTIONS. 2017. Copernicus Publications.

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Rechteinhaber: G. van den Dool

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