Coupling physically based and data-driven models for assessing freshwater inflow into the Small Aral Sea

Ayzel, Georgy; Izhitskiy, Alexander

The Aral Sea desiccation and related changes in hydroclimatic conditions on a regional level is a hot topic for past decades. The key problem of scientific research projects devoted to an investigation of modern Aral Sea basin hydrological regime is its discontinuous nature – the only limited amount of papers takes into account the complex runoff formation system entirely. Addressing this challenge we have developed a continuous prediction system for assessing freshwater inflow into the Small Aral Sea based on coupling stack of hydrological and data-driven models. Results show a good prediction skill and approve the possibility to develop a valuable water assessment tool which utilizes the power of classical physically based and modern machine learning models both for territories with complex water management system and strong water-related data scarcity. The source code and data of the proposed system is available on a Github page (urihttps://github.com/SMASHIproject/IWRM2018).

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Ayzel, Georgy / Izhitskiy, Alexander: Coupling physically based and data-driven models for assessing freshwater inflow into the Small Aral Sea. 2018. Copernicus Publications.

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Rechteinhaber: Georgy Ayzel

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