Impacts of meteorology and emissions on summertime surface ozone increases over central eastern China between 2003 and 2015

Sun, Lei; Xue, Likun; Wang, Yuhang; Li, Longlei; Lin, Jintai; Ni, Ruijing; Yan, Yingying; Chen, Lulu; Li, Juan; Zhang, Qingzhu; Wang, Wenxing

Recent studies have shown that surface ozone (inline-formulaO3) concentrations over central eastern China (CEC) have increased significantly during the past decade. We quantified the effects of changes in meteorological conditions and inline-formulaO3 precursor emissions on surface inline-formulaO3 levels over CEC between July 2003 and July 2015 using the GEOS-Chem model. The simulated monthly mean maximum daily 8 h average inline-formulaO3 concentration (MDA8 inline-formulaO3) in July increased by approximately 13.6 %, from inline-formula65.5±7.9 ppbv (2003) to inline-formula74.4±8.7 ppbv (2015), comparable to the observed results. The change in meteorology led to an increase in MDA8 inline-formulaO3 of inline-formula5.8±3.9 ppbv over the central part of CEC, in contrast to a decrease of about inline-formula M10inlinescrollmathml - normal 0.8 ± normal 3.5 52pt10ptsvg-formulamathimga675ffef291b8664a49cd32b08a8dde5 acp-19-1455-2019-ie00001.svg52pt10ptacp-19-1455-2019-ie00001.png  ppbv over the eastern part of the region. In comparison, the MDA8 inline-formulaO3 over the central and eastern parts of CEC increased by inline-formula3.5±1.4 and inline-formula5.6±1.8 ppbv due to the increased emissions. The increase in averaged inline-formulaO3 in the CEC region resulting from the emission increase (inline-formula4.0±1.9 ppbv) was higher than that caused by meteorological changes (inline-formula3.1±4.9 ppbv) relative to the 2003 standard simulation, while the regions with larger inline-formulaO3 increases showed a higher sensitivity to meteorological conditions than to emission changes. Sensitivity tests indicate that increased levels of anthropogenic non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs) dominate the inline-formulaO3 increase over the eastern part of CEC, and anthropogenic nitrogen oxides (inline-formulaNOx) mainly increase MDA8 inline-formulaO3 over the central and western parts and decrease inline-formulaO3 in a few urban areas in the eastern part. Budget analysis showed that net photochemical production and meteorological conditions (transport in particular) are two important factors that influence inline-formulaO3 levels over the CEC. The results of this study suggest a need to further assess the effectiveness of control strategies for inline-formulaO3 pollution in the context of regional meteorology and anthropogenic emission changes.

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Sun, Lei / Xue, Likun / Wang, Yuhang / et al: Impacts of meteorology and emissions on summertime surface ozone increases over central eastern China between 2003 and 2015. 2019. Copernicus Publications.

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